A study conducted by Imperial College London using data from the English National Diabetes Audit, and published in The Lancet Regional Health Europe, highlights an increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among young adults in England. In light of a decline in rates among older adults, who remain the group with the largest absolute number of new diagnoses, there is a rise in cases among people under 40.
A finding that raises concerns at the level of public health, since early-onset type 2 diabetes tends to progress more aggressively, is associated with a higher frequency of complications and imposes a substantial long-term healthcare burden.
Rising Incidence Among Ages 20 to 39
The study provides an age-stratified analysis of English data, broken down by age, sex, and ethnicity, documenting divergent incidence trends; between 2011 and 2024 incidence rose among adults aged 20-39, with larger year-over-year increases among women.
Among ages 20-29, incidence rose on average by 2.1% per year in men and 3.0% in women. In the 30-39 bracket, the yearly increase was 1.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Among ages 60-79, rates remained stable or declined in all ethnic groups.
BMI at Diagnosis on the Rise
Parallel to the rise in incidence, the study found particularly high BMI values at diagnosis, across all age and sex subgroups; the highest values were observed in adults aged 20-39 and in women.
Overall, over the 14-year period studied, the rise in body mass index at diagnosis among younger adults was estimated at about 2.5 kg/m². This finding is interpreted as a possible signal of greater susceptibility among youths to environmental factors that drive obesity, and reinforces the importance of weight-reduction oriented therapeutic strategies and an early assessment of the possibility of remission.
Possible Implications for Clinical Practice
Although incidence is higher in Asian and Black populations, the observed increase in the White population suggests that early-onset diabetes is becoming more widespread, not limited to ethnic groups traditionally considered at higher risk.
The data refer to England’s type 2 diabetes incidence trends between 2011 and 2024; while population coverage and stratification by age, sex, and ethnicity allow an analysis of epidemiological trends within the context, the results cannot automatically be generalized to other countries.
The study, however, raises clinical and public health implications. The rise in BMI among young adults indicates that current obesity prevention interventions are inadequate, and do not effectively reach this age group. On the prevention front, according to the authors, the findings point to the need for earlier and more intensive measures, focused on diet, physical activity, and the broader determinants of severe obesity, in order to reduce lifetime risk of complications.
Source
Holman N, O’Keefe J, Gregg E, et al. Trends in type 2 diabetes incidence and BMI at diagnosis by age, sex, and ethnicity, 2011-2024: a population-based analysis of the English National Diabetes Audit. Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2026;67:101764
Abbonati a Karla Miller
